A sharp divergence has emerged between the World Bank and the Federal Government over the assumptions in Nigeria’s proposed 2025 national budget. The World Bank, in its latest Nigeria Development Update presented in Abuja, described the federal assumptions—particularly an oil production target of 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) and an oil price of $73 per barrel—as overly optimistic.
In contrast, the Federal Government insisted the assumptions were grounded in Nigeria’s untapped economic potential and historical capacity.
inister of Finance, Wale Edun, and Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, rejected suggestions that the 2025 budget estimates were unrealistic. Bagudu emphasized that Nigeria’s premium crude grades can command above-market pricing, and the country has proven it can produce over 2mbpd under the right conditions.
“The assumptions are based on our capability, not just wishes,” Bagudu stated.
The World Bank praised recent policy reforms, including the removal of petrol subsidies and foreign exchange liberalization. However, it urged the government to remain committed to transparency and fiscal discipline to avoid derailing progress.
The Bank also emphasized the need for private-sector-led growth, recommending significant investment in infrastructure and market-friendly policies to unlock productivity and business dynamism
According to the report, Nigeria’s fiscal outlook is “cautiously optimistic,” but only if current reforms are fully implemented. The World Bank warned that overly ambitious revenue assumptions could create an unexpected fiscal deficit if not carefully managed.
The bank specifically flagged the partial remittance of fuel subsidy gains by the NNPC Limited as a risk to budget execution. “Full transfer of these funds to the Federation Account is critical,” it stated.
CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso stressed that macroeconomic stability remains the central bank’s core focus. “We’ve reduced exchange rate volatility significantly, and we’re committed to sustaining that momentum,” he said.
Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang highlighted insecurity as a major barrier to growth, noting that state governments are spending an increasing portion of their budgets on security rather than development.
“Insecurity diverts funds from infrastructure and human capital development. It is a macroeconomic issue that must be addressed,” Mutfwang stated.
